The map of the Middle East is indeed changing. What is emerging from the media confusion and the rubble in Gaza is not yet clear, but one thing is certain: this is a clean break from the orthodoxies of the past.
(LifeSiteNews) -- With headlines still dominated by a shocking plan by Donald Trump to turn Gaza into a “Riviera of the Middle East,” serious moves are being made in the region away from the policies and politicians which have mired the region in a permanent state of emergency.
The moment is marked by a departure from precedent, seeing a shift in the balance of power in U.S.-Israel relations, Arab initiatives towards regional security, and a historic departure from regional Iranian influence alongside signs of regime change in Israel itself.
Macgregor warns of an ultimatumWhilst Douglas Macgregor warns of a solidifying Arab unity, which he believes will result in an Egyptian-led “ultimatum” being presented to Israel and threatening war, reports emerge of division over the question of Hamas disarmament.
“I think that Egypt is very close to delivering an ultimatum” to Netanyahu, Macgregor warns, “and I think that will trigger war – because I don’t think Mr. Netanyahu is going to stop.”
Meanwhile, ahead of a major Arab summit in March, Arab nations are discussing the terms of an alternative plan for Gaza to that outlined by President Trump. The picture from this initiative is not one of unity on the future of Hamas.
As Israel Hayom reported on February 25, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates demand that Hamas disarm, whilst Egypt and Qatar reportedly disagree.
Saudi Arabia’s billions are seen as vital to renewing the region, not only in the reconstruction of Gaza, but in vital investment partnerships for a faltering Israeli economy. Normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel are seen as vital by both nations, and the U.S., as the basis for any meaningful stabilization of the region. Trump believes this will happen, and if it does – it will “change the Middle East.”
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Qatar, which has been hosting the hostage negotiations supervised by Trump envoy Steve Witkoff, is a main financial backer of Hamas.
The supply of cash to Hamas has been secured with the cooperation of Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli authorities for decades, with a 2002 report from United Press International stating bluntly:
Israel and Hamas may currently be locked in deadly combat, but, according to several current and former U.S. intelligence officials, beginning in the late 1970s, Tel Aviv gave direct and indirect financial aid to Hamas over a period of years.Qatargate: Vatican, EU, and Israeli corruptionIsrael 'aided Hamas directly - the Israelis wanted to use it as a counterbalance to the PLO (Palestinian Liberation Organization),' said Tony Cordesman, Middle East analyst for the Center for Strategic Studies.
Israel's support for Hamas 'was a direct attempt to divide and dilute support for a strong, secular PLO by using a competing religious alternative,' said a former senior CIA official.
Netanyahu is also involved in a complex web of covert action that has seen him and his government embroiled in a further corruption scandal known as “Qatargate.”
This vast scandal, reported in 2022, also involves corruption in the European Union – and even in the Vatican, as Politico announced in November 2024.
Egypt was until the Ukraine war the recipient of the second-largest amount of U.S. foreign aid money after Israel, which is seen as the sponsorship of its government against the rise of a somewhat marginalized but influential Islamist Muslim Brotherhood.
U.S. sponsorship of the Egyptian regime prevents the largest and most militarily powerful Arab nation from becoming an Islamist ally of groups such as Hamas.
The Islamist Muslim Brotherhood began in Egypt and may translate Sisi’s inaction over Gaza to widespread support amongst the 117 million strong Egyptian population, whose frequent demonstrations have seen angry demands for Egypt to intervene militarily to halt Israel’s Gaza war. Sisi’s government has arrested protest leaders demanding solidarity with the Palestinians in mass protests.
Macgregor correctly points to this tension in the Egyptian state, which is leading a major Arab summit on March 4.
As Al Jazeera reported, the leaders of Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain met on February 21st in Riyadh to "to respond to a plan raised by US President Donald Trump for the US to 'take over' Gaza, permanently and forcibly displace its residents and turn the Palestinian enclave into the 'Riviera' of the Middle East."
The summit was postponed initially, and following the presentation of an Egyptian alternative to Trump’s Gaza plan, will reconvene following a “discreet diplomatic drive” by Egypt to summon as many of the 22 members of the Arab League nations as possible in support of its initiative.
As The National reported on February 25, “The country's diplomatic effort to drum up opposition to Mr. Trump's proposals is being made at a time when the [Egypt’s] national security is being severely tested” with a domestic economic crisis, popular pressure to intervene in the Gaza war, and continued dependence on U.S. economic aid all complicating factors in the drive to resolve the “thorny question of who will rule postwar Gaza,” and whose vision will reshape the strip and the fate of its population.
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A visit by Steve Witkoff to press Israeli compliance to proceed to stage two of the hostage deal has been suspended, with Witkoff saying that much is happening in Washington over the matter.
Witkoff has also said he may travel to the region on Sunday, having met with Israel representative Ron Dermer. Witkoff insists the hostage deal “will get to phase two,” despite moves by the Israeli leadership to the contrary which would see Israel potentially restart the war in Gaza.
Witkoff, a Jewish New York real estate billionaire, is seen by diplomats such as Chas Freeman as a sort of wild card.
Witkoff’s undiplomatic language towards the Israeli prime minister has been reported in the Israeli press. As talks began in January, a non-religious Netanyahu first attempted to delay negotiations by complaining the talks were beginning on the Jewish sabbath or “Shabbat.”
“I don’t give a f*** about Shabbat,” is what Witkoff is reported to have told Netanyahu. Veteran Arab-Israeli negotiation specialist Alastair Crooke claimed that Netanyahu has bewailed the fact that “my charm does not work on Witkoff.”
Israeli media has reported that Witkoff's “undiplomatic” approach has “forced Netanyahu to accept a plan he repeatedly rejected.”
Douglas Macgregor, by contrast, has described Witkoff as the smartest man in the room.
The Israeli leader stands accused by his former coaliton partner Itamar Ben-Gvir of having personally sabotaged every hostage deal for a year – to serve his own interests. The families of the Israeli hostages accused the government of “sacrificing the hostages” in May 2024, a position echoed by Israeli opposition leader and former Prime Minister Yair Lapid.
This week, Lapid was also in Washington to present a plan for a postwar Gaza – and Israel. Lapid has led mounting criticism of Netanyahu since the October 7 attacks, saying Netanyahu had no vision for either Israelis or the Palestinians for the “day after” the end of the war.
Israel should apologize for killing innocents: LapidIn a remarkable exchange at a conference held by the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, Lapid was addressed by a Palestinian-American journalist.
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Before answering Ahmed Alkhatib’s question on his postwar plan, Lapid asked, “Is your family OK?”
Alkhatib replied with the horrifying details of how 33 of his relatives had been killed in Gaza.
Lapid then made a statement without precedent from a leading Israeli politician. Referring to the transformation of Israel in the image of the Netanyahu regime, he said, “Part of the terrible change is that I have no idea why the government of Israel is reluctant from saying that we are sorry for the loss of any innocent life.”
He added, “Children should not die in grown-ups' wars.”
Lapid’s conciliatory tone may signal a shift in Israeli domestic politics which will in turn help to reshape the region away from the permanent war footing which has been the hallmark of Netanyahu’s career.
The forum at which he spoke is backed by an initiative dedicated to “Saving Israel’s Democracy” from the extremism, judicial and democratic subversion, and criminal corruption of the Netanyahu regime. Netanyahu himself is in court this week facing charges of corruption, with pressure on his coalition mounting as Witkoff moves him away from the promises he has made to his political allies.
Changing the map of the Middle EastNetanyahu’s coalition wants to resume the war in Gaza, abandon the hostage deal, and move to a war with Iran. These aims are all frustrated by Witkoff’s efforts, and Lapid, whose leadership of the Israeli parliamentary opposition does not come from the left, is maneuvering to present himself as a leader with a vision beyond the enemies of peace in Israel.
With news this week from Steve Witkoff that both Syria and Lebanon may be willing to join the Abraham Accords, this “profound change” would signal the removal of the Iranian “Shia crescent” of partner nations seen as a threat to Israeli and regional security.
The map of the Middle East is indeed changing. Donald Trump appears to have followed Steve Bannon’s vaunted “flood the zone” strategy of capturing the media in a frenzy with outrageous statements – such as Trump’s outrageous proposal for a “Mar-A-Gaza.”
Behind the headlines, however, a real deal is taking shape. Whose deal that will be, and whose hands will be there to sign it, remain to be seen. What is emerging from the media confusion and the rubble in Gaza is not yet clear, but one thing is certain: this is a clean break from the orthodoxies of the past. Moves are being made now which will change the course of history in the Middle East.
